Why has the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season been so quiet?
By mid-September, the Atlantic had produced five named storms but no hurricanes. Here is what the numbers say—and what they cannot promise about the rest of the season.
As of the National Hurricane Center’s 9 a.m. UTC update on September 17, the 2026 Atlantic season had produced five named storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. None had reached hurricane strength. At this point in an average season, the NHC’s 1991–2020 comparison shows nine named storms and four hurricanes. Its accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE—a measure that combines storm strength and duration—stood at 4.4, about 94 percent below the normal value for this date. That makes the lull more than a quiet week: storms have been relatively few, brief and weak so far.
One important backdrop is El Niño. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported on September 10 that El Niño was strengthening. NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory explains that El Niño generally increases vertical wind shear across the Atlantic. Shear can disrupt the organization of thunderstorms that might otherwise grow into hurricanes. This is a broad seasonal influence, not proof that El Niño prevented any particular storm. Other conditions also matter, and the same ocean basin can change quickly.
The distinction for coastal readers is between lower basin-wide activity and local safety. A quiet season to date does not rule out a damaging late-season storm or heavy rain from a tropical storm. NOAA’s hurricane season runs through November 30. Follow the National Hurricane Center’s current outlook and local warnings for decisions about your location, rather than treating a low seasonal storm count as an all-clear.
Figures reflect the NHC summary as of September 17, 2026, and may change with new storms or post-season analysis.